CPG, in collaboration with the Asian Governance Foundation, presents “Unraveling the Crisis in Myanmar: Current Status and Future Trajectories” on August 30, 2024, from 3:00 p.m. to 4:30 p.m. (GMT+7) via Zoom and is part of the CPG Event Series on Peace and Security in Asia.
Description
In recent months, the protracted armed conflict in Myanmar has escalated significantly, indicating a pivotal moment in the civil war and a potential collapse of the military regime. Against this backdrop, three seasoned Myanmar experts will analyze the current situation and potential paths forward amidst the ongoing crisis in this webinar. They will address critical topics including the current condition of the military regime in the wake of the latest advancements of resistance forces, developments within the ethnic armed organizations (EAOS) and People’s Defense Forces (PDFs), and international responses to the conflict.
The event is part of the CPG Event Series on Peace and Security in Asia, hosted monthly by CPG’s Peace & Security Center (CPSC).
Background
Launched in October last year and intensified in June following the collapse of a five-month China-brokered ceasefire, the major military offensive known as “Operation 1027” by the Three Brotherhood Alliance – comprising the Kokang Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and the Arakan Army (AA) – has posed significant challenges to the Myanmar military on multiple fronts. The Arakan Army reportedly has full control over northern Rakhine State, while the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) continues to seize towns, regime military bases, and trade routes in northern Shan State along the Chinese border. Simultaneously, People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) have opened a new front in the Mandalay region after capturing nine junta posts in Thabeikkyin, 100 km north of Mandalay city, marking the latest setback for the ruling military. Estimates suggest that opposition forces now control approximately 60% of the country, forcing the Myanmar Army to retreat to urban strongholds protected by air power, artillery, and substantial ammunition supplies.
Amid the advances and successes of Operation 1027 and the People’s Defense Forces groups, the military leadership has also come under increasing political pressure. Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing has recently faced public criticism from military supporters over his leadership style and the latest territorial losses in Shan State. There have even been rumors of an internal coup against Min Aung Hlaing.
Compounding these challenges is a deteriorating economy, with poverty more widespread than at any time in the last six years. Growth is forecast to remain at a meager 1% in the current fiscal year, with little respite in sight, according to the latest World Bank projections. A shortage of skilled workers, who are fleeing the country, along with power shortages and a depreciating currency, has made it increasingly difficult to conduct business.
On the human rights front, the situation is equally critical. The UN Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar recently released its annual report, concluding that war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by the Myanmar military from July 2023 to June 2024 have escalated at an “alarming rate.” The report highlights intensifying armed conflicts across the country, with documented war crimes including aerial bombings of non-military targets such as schools and hospitals, as well as brutal acts like beheadings and the public display of mutilated bodies intended to terrorize civilians. The report also estimates that more than 3 million people have been displaced over the past six months.
International responses to these developments in the civil war have been mixed. China appears increasingly vocal in demanding a return to peace to protect its national interests in the country. While officially supporting Myanmar’s efforts to maintain national unity and stability, China has also supported certain ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), many of which are currently in conflict with the State Administration Council (SAC). This support is particularly evident with the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and the Arakan Army (AA), which wield significant influence in Shan and Rakhine states, respectively. With strategic and economic interests in these regions, Beijing views Shan and Rakhine states as pivotal to its China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). During a meeting with junta chief Min Aung Hlaing in Nay Pyi Taw in mid-August, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reiterated Beijing’s demand for effective protection of the safety of Chinese personnel and projects. Prior to this meeting, Min Aung Hlaing claimed that foreign countries were supporting resistance groups with arms, technologies, and other assistance. While he did not name them, it was widely understood to be a reference to China, which has long maintained close relations with ethnic militias operating along the border.
On the other side, the West is seen as having an opportunity at this critical juncture in the conflict to regain relevance in Myanmar’s future development by supporting anti-junta forces in areas they effectively control. On August 15, U.S. officials held a virtual meeting with members of Myanmar’s opposition movement during which they pledged to expand direct support to help a transition to civilian government and agreed on the need to maintain pressure on the military junta. The discussions included the possibility of direct assistance from the US government in the provision of public services and local governance in areas controlled by resistance forces. The meeting was attended by State Department Counselor Tom Sullivan, USAID Assistant Administrator Michael Schiffer, and leading members of Myanmar’s pro-democracy National Unity Government, the National Unity Consultative Council, and key resistance organizations, the Karen National Union, Karenni National Progressive Party, and the Chin National Front.
Speaker
Anthony Davis, Security Analyst, Janes: Anthony Davis is a Bangkok-based security analyst and writer who has covered conflict in the Asian region for over three decades, spending much of that career in Afghanistan, Myanmar and southern Thailand. He writes primarily for Jane’s defense publications with a particular focus on insurgency, terrorism, and transnational organized crime, while serving as a consultant for corporate clients and international non-governmental organizations. He comments regularly for international news media.
Sanjay Gathia, Director, Borders & Broader Conversations Initiative: Sanjay Gathia is the Founder & Director of the Borders & Broader Conversations Initiative (BBCinitiative). His current work focuses on creating people-to-people (P2P) connections between India, Myanmar, and Thailand, aimed at enhancing cross-border networking, facilitate information sharing, and foster policy research collaborations. Before this role, Sanjay worked with a national independent Burmese media organization based in Yangon for six years from 2016 until 2021. Over the past two decades, he has held senior positions in various sectors, including NGOs, corporate organizations, international NGOs, inter-governmental organizations and media, while engaging government institutions and election commissions in the Asia region.
Dr. Htwe Htwe Thein, Associate Professor of International Business, Faculty of Business and Law, Curtin University, Western Australia: Dr Htwe Htwe Thein is an associate professor of international business at the Faculty of Business and Law, Curtin University, Western Australia. She is well-known as a scholar on foreign direct investment, development, and business and human rights in Myanmar. She has commented on these topics for various media organizations, including BBC World, ABC TV(Australia), Channel News Asia, TRT World, AFP, the Conversation, and Le Monde. She has been published widely in books and journals in her field and has received various awards for research and engagement at Curtin University.
Jason Tower, Director Burma Program, United States Institute of Peace: Jason Tower is the country director for the Burma program at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP). He has over 20 years of experience working on conflict and security issues in China and Southeast Asia. His research covers a wide range of issues in the intersecting field of crime and conflict in Southeast Asia. Among his recent works is a study of the impacts of transnational criminal networks on conflict in Burma and regional security across Southeast Asia, in addition to more than a dozen articles analyzing the impacts of the Myanmar coup, including on regional security in Asia.
Moderator
Dr. Duc Quang Ly, Project Manager, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG).
Agenda
3:00-3:05 pm | Welcoming words | Henning Glaser, Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG).
3:05-4:00 pm | Panel discussion: “Unraveling the Crisis in Myanmar: Current Status and Future Trajectories” | Panelists (in alphabetical order):
Anthony Davis, Security Analyst, Janes
Sanjay Gathia, Director, Borders & Broader Conversations Initiative
Htwe Htwe Thein, Associate Professor, Faculty of Business and Law, Curtin University Jason Tower, Director Burma Program, United States Institute of Peace
4:00-4:30 pm | Open Forum, Q & A session
4:30 pm | Concluding remarks
Participation
Event registration is essential for participation; individuals interested are encouraged to do so by visiting the link or QR code provided below. For more information, please email us at events@cpg-online.de.
Contact Information
Contact Dr. Duc Quang Ly at duc.quang.ly@cpg-online.de for program content.
Contact Ms. Venus Phuangkom at events@cpg-online.de for administrative matters.